Explosive US, Israel—Iran War: Risks for Tourism Industry of Bali
Admin 2 - atnews
By Jro Gde Sudibya
Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli attack backed by the United States (US) on Saturday (Feb 28).
There is the potential for a Third World War, considering the causal factors (casus belli) of World Wars I and II. The triggering factor is the death of a leader affected by the country where the conflict is taking place.
A US-Iran war has the potential to trigger a global economic crisis, as rising oil prices could trigger inflation in many countries. Indonesia faces the risk of rising inflation amidst a slumping middle-class economy. Tourism in Bali, where European tourists account for around 28 percent of total foreign visitors to Bali, could be seriously impacted.
The Strait of Hormuz could be closed for a prolonged period that results in disrupting crude oil supplies to Asia and Europe, increasing fuel prices, and driving up inflation, amidst pressured purchasing power of people.
A significant reduction in tourists from Europe would severely erode the revenue of tourism industry from the European market. In addition, the poverty rate in Bali could rise, necessitating an increase in the budget for poverty alleviation and social assistance for vulnerable communities.
The case during the pandemic period in 2020 where the economy grew by a negative 9.3 percent but the poverty alleviation budget remained unchanged should not get repeated.
The Bali regional government must re-evaluate its budget. The 2026 image-building budget of IDR 225 billion must be completely slashed. Social assistance for electability purposes must be also reduced to encourage productive employment opportunities, especially in rural areas. The suffering of people must not be sacrificed for political image-building.
*) Jro Gde Sudibya is an economist, economic and public policy observer.
Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in an Israeli attack backed by the United States (US) on Saturday (Feb 28).
There is the potential for a Third World War, considering the causal factors (casus belli) of World Wars I and II. The triggering factor is the death of a leader affected by the country where the conflict is taking place.
A US-Iran war has the potential to trigger a global economic crisis, as rising oil prices could trigger inflation in many countries. Indonesia faces the risk of rising inflation amidst a slumping middle-class economy. Tourism in Bali, where European tourists account for around 28 percent of total foreign visitors to Bali, could be seriously impacted.
The Strait of Hormuz could be closed for a prolonged period that results in disrupting crude oil supplies to Asia and Europe, increasing fuel prices, and driving up inflation, amidst pressured purchasing power of people.
A significant reduction in tourists from Europe would severely erode the revenue of tourism industry from the European market. In addition, the poverty rate in Bali could rise, necessitating an increase in the budget for poverty alleviation and social assistance for vulnerable communities.
The case during the pandemic period in 2020 where the economy grew by a negative 9.3 percent but the poverty alleviation budget remained unchanged should not get repeated.
The Bali regional government must re-evaluate its budget. The 2026 image-building budget of IDR 225 billion must be completely slashed. Social assistance for electability purposes must be also reduced to encourage productive employment opportunities, especially in rural areas. The suffering of people must not be sacrificed for political image-building.
*) Jro Gde Sudibya is an economist, economic and public policy observer.
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